إثر مكونات الموازنة العامة على مؤشرات سوق العراق للأوراق الماليةٌ للمدة من 2008 الى 2022

الملخص

Purpose: The study aim is to verify the impact of the general budget components on the indicators of the Iraq Stock Exchange, and test them through the variables (public revenues, public expenditures, budget deficit and surplus, tax revenues) on the indicators (number of listed companies, trading volume, general index). shares) for the period from 2008-2022.

Theoretical Framework: Although studies were conducted to clarify the impact of the general budget on economic growth, a study was conducted on the budget deficit and its impact on economic activity in the context of public finance, and there was a need , To explore the effect of the budget elements as a result of the increase in the fiscal deficit due to the increase in public expenditures and its impact on the increase in the volume of consumption and the increase in demand for the importer as a result of the fluctuation of the currency exchange rate.

Design/Methodology/Approach: Used the methodologies of Zainab and Adeeb (2022) to test the impact of public budget components on economic activity. With regard to testing the validity of the hypothesis and the study model, time series path analysis was used within the analysis of the multiple regression equation and the VAR model to test the validity of the hypotheses.

The study sample consisted of the Iraq Stock Exchange, which is inclusive of all indices of the companies listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange, trading volume and the general stock index, as well as the possibility of circulating the results fairly to the community.

Findings:

The results indicate that the elements of the general budget as indicators of the size of economic activity and the structure of economic sectors have a direct impact on the indicators of the Iraqi market for securities, especially when there is a budget deficit and the government resorts to borrowing, such an effect is statistically significant. The results provide practical solutions to enhance economic activity through redistribution of income and diversification of various sources of financing, including revitalization of the financial market.

Research, Practical and Social Implications: Future studies can look at other indicators of the elements of the general budget and evaluate their impact on the different dimensions of the relationship between the general budget methodology and the diversification of various funding sources and long-term financial instruments.

Implications/Originality/Value: This study contributes to the literature related to the public budget by analyzing the results of the effect of the equations of increasing public revenues to finance the increased public expenditures on the indicators of the Iraq Stock Exchange, and presents a practical and applied perception of the role played by the general budget plan on the structure of the economic sectors.