Measuring and analyzing the relationship between energy prices and some of the cash sector variables in Iraq During the period 2018-2020

Abstract

Several economic studies within Iraq and Kharga revealed that Iraq is one of the countries of the world, depending on traditional energy sources, in the first place, crude oil and natural gas, and crude oil constitutes the largest percentage of its total exports of Iraq, so knowing the impact and relationship of global energy prices on the economy of Iraq in general The monetary sector in particular is an urgent necessity to know the prospects for the economic future of Iraq by relying on the degree of association and impact that the energy fluctuations leave, the energy prices (crude oil - liquefied gas and gas condensate) have been adopted as independent sources of study affecting the Iraqi economic reality, and the variables of the monetary sector Which includes (the Central Bank of Iraq- financial markets- and commercial banks operating in Iraq) are only variables of the study that have the impact of energy prices. In his study, the researcher relied on energy price data obtained from Sumo to market crude oil and its derivatives during the monthly period of 1/1/2018 until 12/31/2020, while the data of the cash sector was based on the monthly statistical bulletins of the Central Bank of Iraq - The statistical site, and the results have been analyzed and tested by using the statistical program (SPSS), as well as the use of the Ext And a strong connection that depends on it by explaining the relationship of the link and the impact between the prices of energy and local investments in Iraq, as well as the existence of a relationship of engagement and moral impact with statistically significant between energy prices and interest rates among commercial banks operating in Iraq, where the study recommended the need to find new alternatives that are an important resource for the Iraqi economy. That the captive of energy fluctuations in the global market remains either due to the emergence of political factors and the reconciliation of special countries or irregular emergency problems that cannot be controlled as in the Corona health crisis in which energy prices fell at very large levels due to the lack of demand for the supply of energy sources.