Analysis of the determinants of ordinary stock returns using the logistic regression model: an applied study of a sample of shares of companies listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange

Abstract

The study deals with the factors affecting the returns of the shares of companies listed in the Iraqi Stock Exchange. The study sample consisted of (33) companies and from various sectors during the period from 2016 - 2016 The research adopted the performance of the stock as a dependent variable and the determinants of performance as independent variables Which included a set of financial ratios, which are as follows: (the percentage change in sales growth), (earnings per share), (the ratio of price to earnings per share), (earnings before interest and taxes), (the ratio of sales to total assets), (the book value of the share). One), (the book value of the company), (return on assets), (return on equity), (debt-to-asset ratio), (ownership-to-asset ratio) as internal determinants that were determined as internal determinants, while the external determinants were As for the external determinants, they were (share turnover), (issued shares), (listed shares), (deals), (traded value), (sessions) And the most important conclusions reached by this study are that the logistic models can be estimated in the Iraqi stock market on the basis of the stock performance (return) as a dependent variable, and the determinant of X5 performance represented by the ratio of sales to total assets was one of the most diagnostic determinants and an inverse relationship with the performance of the stock, i.e. The more this determinant increases, the more likely that there will be losses in returns, and this means that investors tend to keep stocks if companies achieve high sales performance, which reduces the volume of available ones, and consequently, the decline in purchases and consequently the decline in capital return. Statistical like logistic regression to reach results that benefit company owners, investors and fund managers in the Iraqi Stock Exchange in building their strategiesandmakingcorrectinvestment decisions