The impact of macroeconomic variables on the gross domestic product in Iraq for the period (2004–2024)

Abstract

This research aims to analyze and measure the impact of macroeconomic variables on Iraq's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during the period 2004–2024. The econometric method was used to determine the nature of the relationship between the variables under study. The macroeconomic variables included the inflation rate, exchange rate, interest rate, unemployment rate, government spending, and money supply, while GDP was the dependent variable.

The research relied on annual data issued by local and international official bodies and employed the Autoregressive Distributed Limiting (ARDL) model, which was deemed suitable for the nature of Iraqi economic data. The research concluded that there is a long-term relationship between macroeconomic variables and Iraq's GDP, with varying degrees of influence in terms of direction and strength. The research concludes with a set of findings and recommendations that can contribute to enhancing the effectiveness of economic policies and achieving sustainable economic growth in Iraq.